The crisis of Hungary and
the drama of the EU – for a brief period separate from each other
and the former even resolved at least in the imagery of the prime
minister, Viktor Orbán – suddenly got bound to each other very
firmly. Not only was the complete dependence of Hungary's economy on
and from the European declared, but the unfolding crisis of the
eurozone absorbed Hungary's fate last week, at the meeting of the
European Council. The issue of whether the prime minister blundered
diplomatically or not in Friday morning is significant only in a
strictly Hungarian context as a possible demonstration of the
governments rapidly diminishing capacity to handle politics and
governance, not the first sign in this sense and hardly the last one.
But the whole French-German plan bears utmost significance for the
country as well and poses some questions concerning the governments
confused reaction too.
The interpretations
of the council's declaration pointed out at least four important
aspects that should be considered from a Hungarian (and more broadly
from an East Central European perspective). The proposed new fiscal
stability rules can be seen as the end of (or even the outlawing of)
Keynsianist
economic policies. Furthermore, some
argue that a fiscal union following the German blueprint of
re-balancing through austerity can bring (or just aggravate) the
present state of economics close to depression and bring about a
serious challenge to democracy. The latter means that crisis stricken
countries, among them Hungary, certainly have to reconsider their
place and chances given the restrictive economic environment. But the
plan is far from being unproblematic from a pro-European perspective
too, it proposes an incomplete transfer union without proper
governing bodies and democratic representation, reviving (or even
enhancing) the never eliminated complaint of democratic deficit in
the EU.
But
with all of these issues that certainly should not be neglected or
treated in an off hand manner, the Hungarian reaction was very
curious. While the government portrays itself (and is selling this
idea to its European partners at every occasion) as the champion of
far reaching reforms, fiscal prudence and stability, hails itself as
the only country that will achieve a budget deficit within the limits
prescribed in the Maastricht Tretay, it still failed to sign to a new
treaty that will only enshrine these self-proclaimed objects of
national pried. Even if its boldly announced aim is to transform the
country to the most (or most recently, from today one of the most)
competitive countries in Europe , and one that can compete with
China. Quite in line with what the Germans are blamed for, trying to
make everyone German as a panacea for the crisis.
So,
why the restraint? There is an obvious explanation, sovereignty. It
means power and as the new fiscla riles and most notably the way they
would be enforced would curtail the sovereignty of the parties to the
new treaty, the government is not quite willing to hand its power to
a European body or accept trusteeship of Germans and French.
Especially if it still believes in its vision of a West in decline
and an East on the rise. However, even if such considerations
certainly played a role in the decision not to accept the new treaty
(a position later softened to consulting the parliament on this
issue) there is one valid point hidden in all of the verbal
camouflage: is it possible to create a fiscal union on the proposed
line without hampering or tacitly eliminating democracy? It is not
only about the way the Greek and Italian premiers were replaced –
seen by many as a plot of mysterious capitalists and foreign
politicians –, but about the German plan's content: constitutional
fiscal rules that could – in case of a suitable interpretation –
ban fiscal stimulus and enforce the further dissolution of welfare
institutions. Not that it would be too far from the Hungarian
government's aim. It is frequently declaring the end of the welfare
state, a new era of work-based society instead of one based on social
benefits. But according to its interpretation this process is the
result of the rise of the East, an industrious, demographically
growing world, whose success can be followed only with its own
measures, hence the insistence of gaining competitiveness vis-a-vis
China.
But
if one considers the process of how the welfare systems were rolled
back, it is hard not to see other factors, intra-EU developments
behind it. Most notably the insistence on market based investments in
ECE after 1989 as opposed to institutional based ones. It meant a
competition for investment even into social systems and as in every
case investment could be attracted with the fastest and safest return
on capital and with the fattest profit. The subsequent necessity to
cut welfare systems as there was no need and way to finance them
resulted not from the competition from the East but from the
competition among new member (and accession) states.
From
the above diagnosis one can conclude that some EU-wide measures would
be beneficial for the members states in the sense of reducing the
pressure on their present welfare systems and societies. Such as a
harmonized tax base (part of the German proposal), that would reduce
(or probably eliminate) tax competition in order to attract
investment. With envisioning more significant reforms of the EU's
architecture – in the longer term – there is the possibility to
harmonize and connect – and later merge – certain welfare
systems, such as health care,, unemployment benefits or pensions. It
would alleviate a huge burden from some crisis stricken countries,
like in Hungary's case 1-2 billion EUR would certainly reduce the
dissipation of medical personnel. And as such changes would require a
larger and more flexible EU budget it would make it possible to enact
fiscal stimuli even if the member states adhere to the strict fiscal
rules proposed. But it needs new political structure, with real
political representation and responsibility, an enhanced role of EU
instiutions in governing, not (only) intergovernmental action.
But
as if such a situation wouldn't be complex enough, internal
developments in Hungary makes the country's position even more
complicated. Authoritarian
tendencies transforming a functioning democracy into an illiberal
one at best; a „visionary” economic policy, a mixture of classic
nineteenth century capitalism, catholic social thinking from the
thirties, neo-liberal dogmas like tax competition and flat-tax, and
nationalist protectionism results in an unpredictable and growth
restraining voluntarism; an overestimated potential of the country
coupled with the belief in national peculiarity, all of these
manifested in utterly misguided action and failure to recognize real
constraints for the country, ultimately leading to a return to the
earlier decried IMF as the only potential source of financing for the
next years.
Manoeuvreing
between political constraints abroad and a sense of omnipotency at
home (given the governments 2/3 majority and its ability to change
the constitution according to its will in days) was channeled into an
attempt to completely rebuild the state. As a result next year
Hungarians have to face not only the expected economic hardships
(declining real wages, stagnating, probably even growing unemployment
etc.), but the possible chaos brought about radical changes in the
structure of the state. (Reducing local self-governments to a minimal
role, building a centralized public instruction system, drastic
reduction of higher education, centralization of pub,ic
administration hitherto enacted by local self-governments etc.) The
government during its eighteen months long tenure showed rather
incapacity to carry out such sweeping changes, resulting in frequents
delays compared to the previously announced deadlines, window
dressing without real changes, frequent reversals of earlier measures
(the most telling is the example of minor taxes, the government in an
attempt to reduce red tape eliminated 10 of them, but in a year
introduced another twelve). Nothing happened according to the plans
outlined, everything was in a permanent delay and confusion and the
deepest changes are still only in the phase of legislation. Not to
speak of illusory ideas, like a restructuring of the disability
pensions and benefits system, with a failed plan to reconsider the
status of almost 400 000 people in six month. Meanwhile the lowest
levels of state administration became highly politicized, party
commissaries installed, essential systems are underfinanced (health
care, education, administration) while the budget renounces
significant potential revenues (progressive taxation, a progressive
property tax etc.) But there is no EU-wide resolution of the problems
on offer from Hungary, neither an attempt to fight for preserving
what was left from social equality and cohesion. This fight is not
for the greater good of the community – or only in a weird sense,
for the greater good of a non-existing, imaginary organic nation –,
but for the power of a government sliding into authoritarianism.
The
irony of the situation is that the government – while deluding
itself that so-called unorthodox measures (windfall taxes etc.) do
not mean austerity – creates exactly the same self-generating and
self-intensifying cycle of austerity that can be expected from the
German plan too. Its followers – and its politicians – still
think that it is just temporary, a kind of transition, with the
rebuilding of the state finished amelioration of the situation is in
sight from 2013. However, given its impact on economic growth and the
proven inability of the government to provide effective governance
the fight for sovereignty can easily end in a catastrophe. German
style austerity carried out while the state simply dissolves. In the
face of this prospect – and it is the irony – even a strict,
closely monitored IMF-EU program can be favorable.