Wasteland? - East-Central Europe in crisis

On the paradox of sovereignty

2011-12-30T20:59:00.002+01:00

There should be nothing surprising in the Hungarian governments reluctance to accept the terms of the EU and the IMF for a new agreement, at least for those following the developments in Hungary. The EU insists on repeal of some recently passed legislation, while the IMF made very clear that there is no way Hungary can hope for anything else than a stand-by-agreement with hard policy

On thin ice?

2011-12-14T13:16:00.002+01:00

Hungary's prime minister is in full gear. With declining popularity and approval ratings he is convinced that it is due to his government's inability to make people understand how well they are treated. Instead they believe in the lies of the opposition. As a result Viktor Orbán appears everywhere, gives interviews (even to reporters earlier exiled to remote corners of the public media) and

Why not?

2011-12-12T23:09:00.001+01:00

The crisis of Hungary and the drama of the EU – for a brief period separate from each other and the former even resolved at least in the imagery of the prime minister, Viktor Orbán – suddenly got bound to each other very firmly. Not only was the complete dependence of Hungary's economy on and from the European declared, but the unfolding crisis of the eurozone absorbed Hungary's fate last week,

Disorderly devaluation?

2011-09-14T21:50:00.001+02:00

The saga of the conversion of fx-loans in Hungary goes on. According to a report at the Hungarian website origo.hu the government's main aim is to regain freedom of exchange rate determination and practically carry out a devaluation of the forint, without hurting households with fx-loans. As I'm no friend of this government I'm sceptical a bit, no government politician or supporter used this

Self comment on the previous post

2011-09-11T09:19:00.002+02:00

Maybe soemone who has read this blog carefully will obstruct my previous post that earlier I was no friend of banks and suddenly taking an issue on behalf of them can only be the expression of political bias. In order to clarify this (but not denying some political bias, anyway, why should a blogger be unbiased, it is supposedly a very personal genre) let me present my opinion. Firstly, banks are

Frustration, failure, voluntarism

2011-09-10T21:01:00.001+02:00

Hungary is still only a secondary front-line of the renascent crisis, not among the headlines and for a superficial observer (i. e. for most of them) it could seem justified. Although the slippage in this years budget (and the obvious: the flat tax was not capable to stimulate growth) could warrant some worry, the government is imitating action at every negative sign, this time announcing 100

Scholars of humanties will save the world?

2011-08-10T12:28:00.000+02:00

Yesterday - at least as I see, without any qualification and only intuitively - was a fine example how the psychology of the markets work. At the start almost every stock exchange plunged, almost a free fall, but they soon began to recover, most probably on the back of expectations that the FED will announce new measure to boost the sluggish US economy. The expectations ranged as far as the

August again, leaders on holiday - what about a new Marshall-plan?

2011-08-08T15:34:00.001+02:00

Not that it would be a typical one, with almost unbearable heat, slowly radiating from the walls of houses and even the shade of trees not offering relief without the breeze. And I don't believe in theories that for some mysterious reason August would be a month dedicated to and the most suitable for catastrophic events to happen. But after another half a year of "it is a strong recovery,

The taxation liquidity trap

2011-03-25T13:53:00.002+01:00

It was clear for a while that the Hungarian government's secret weapon to curb economic growth is a low tax economy. (Well, with a supposedly strong and active state, something that would most probably result in a despotic state instead, but it is a sidetrack here.) The reason they gave why the government does not want to join the new competitiveness pact of the EU was nothing else that the

Hungary, even more path-dependent?

2011-03-11T16:01:00.001+01:00

Hungary is again pushing forward on its path towards its demise with the so-called Széll Kálmán-plan and the Draft Constitution. It would be (or probably will be) entertaining to analyze the constitution in depth in the light of Fidesz's organic/integral nationalism, how it correpsonds to this idea.JUst as it would be important to give a more detailed coverage of the economic plicies of the

Pride over not being prejudiced

2011-02-14T13:57:00.000+01:00

Ok, it was a safe guess. Nothing specific and new in Orbán's speech. Even though I have to admit, even my guess was too optimistic: Orbán didn't even announced anything specific regarding unemployment benefits. Anyway, I'm proud as clearly I was among the few expecting what really happened.

Playing Cassandra, resolving cognitive dissonance and on the importance of not investing too much emotional and intellectual capital in expectations

2011-02-12T11:37:00.009+01:00

As I try to take a distance from politics in a stricter sense it could mean that in less troubled times I remain silent. My intention is not to comment on everything happening in Hungary or in ECE, especially not when someone else is perofrming it with more expertise and in line with my opinion, rather to give my ideas when I feel I can express thoughts and ideas less prevalent in the public

Mark Pittaway, 1971-2010. R.I.P.

2010-11-05T14:11:00.007+01:00

Just a short note on an official website, but an enormous loss. Banalities rush to my mind, maybe one of them is decent enough to dedicate it to the memory of a friend.: the most tragic of losses when you must realize the one who passed was so much better than you.Update: The Open University website has now a tribute page.

Hungary and sovereign default

2010-10-30T17:36:00.002+02:00

It's almost official: the government's ingenious plan is to nationalize compulsory private pension savings and spend it on current budget expenses (pensions) and debt reduction. They hope it will enable them to survive without major restructuring and action until the tax cuts will bring 7% GDP growth. (Actually many expressed doubts, how realistic this expectation could be. Some calculate that 8-

White mice - Updated

2010-10-14T09:42:00.019+02:00

After months of permanent "revolution" the prime minister, Viktor Orbán announced new measures this Wednesday aimed to bring the budget deficit under the ceiling aggreed with the EU, supposedly without austerity. It would be easy to mock him how he defines austerity (as next years budget is planned with a nominal cut in budget expenditures, obviously affecting a lot of people) but I presume it

The Great Economic Experiment

2010-06-11T19:21:00.006+02:00

For a while I was convinced that Fidesz's action plan is just the result of confusion and lack of time, that's the reason behind its incoherence. However, probably it is a more refined action to achieve the elbow room they wanted. As one of their basic slogans in the campaign was the end of "traditional economics" they decided to prove how problematic its basic assumptions are. This is an

An action plan of indecision? Updated

2010-06-08T21:24:00.011+02:00

Hungary's new prime minister, Viktor Orbán announced yesterday his "action plan" a set of measures seen as the guidelines of the government's economic policy. The announcement followed days of insecurity caused by remarks of Fidesz and government officials on the budget deficit this year, frequently using phrases "like Greece", "default" etc. This debacle (retrospectively Fidesz politicians -

Rewind?

2010-05-11T18:57:00.001+02:00

With the events of the last few weeks one can easily think we are back to the gloomy days of early 2009. Unfortunately Marx’s famous dictum, everything in history is staged twice, once as a tragedy and again as a comedy, proved to be wrong. The tragedy of East-Central Europe was followed by the tragedy of South Eastern Europe: Greece and the unnoticed one, in Romania. The former literally

On taxation II.

2010-03-14T13:42:00.014+01:00

Although in the previous post I mentioned macroeconomic context of taxation as the topic of this follow up post, as a layman I do not want to claim to analyze the issue in depth. My aim is only to pick up some themes - some frequently mentioned in the public discourse, some totally absent - I find intriguing, nothing more.The whole problem is centered around the redistributive role and the

On taxation I.

2010-03-10T09:42:00.014+01:00

As the elections in Hungary in April draw nearer and the result seems pretty sure - at least regarding the person of the next prime minister - more and more speculation appears on the probable economic policy of the next government. Some of these are driven by curiosity and goodwill, others rather by pure and badly veiled self-interest, but one thing is common these are speculations as long as no

Democracy victorious

2010-03-10T00:07:00.002+01:00

Our Moldavian very European democrats are in action. Instead of complying with the current constitution and dissolve parliament after the failure of electing a new president, they decided to create a new one. Not that I had any illusion and I'm sure that for those who thought of them as the champions of democracy it will even be a reassurance in their blind faith. However, the nasty communist

Political economy of the West - updated

2010-03-09T10:33:00.003+01:00

I always tried to avoid being boring and repetitive (however the resulting decline of posts can only help in the latter, but unfortunately enhances the former) but one of my permanent assumptions mentioned on this blog is that contrary to the popular - and evidently self-interest driven - portrayal of Eastern politicians their are not different from their Western peers. A very few of these people

It is so familiar!

2010-02-10T08:22:00.003+01:00

Actually I'm not really surprised but as usual the idea of the Hungarian politicians being uniquely stupid and villainous, runing away from every copnforntation with the popular will is widely shared in this country. Due to the recent decisions of the Constitutional Court it was cpmlemented by another complain, that this institutions is a unheard defender of social rights, blocking every

Hungary - once again left behind

2010-01-23T20:08:00.007+01:00

For years the idea of Hungary having a unique and unparalleled crisis, that could not happen elsewhere was a dull, repetitive syntactic element of almost every commentator's opinion. Reasons were easy to find: nowhere was such a bad government identified, no society was more attached to its socialist past, no politicians were so fearful of losing elections, no country so corrupt. But at least,

Something worth to read - from Barcelona

2010-01-04T14:26:00.002+01:00

One piece, one author, two versions. Worth to read...

What kind of state we need?

2009-12-26T19:00:00.008+01:00

It is a popular question today, not only for those who try to figure out what kind of social system (or in case of conservatives state, authority, society etc.) would be the better from the different perspectives of diferent value systems, but for ordinary people. The state is easily seen as a burden, an unneccessary burocratic authority, not encouraging, but restraining the productive skills of

Random thoughts at the end of a long year

2009-12-26T10:46:00.013+01:00

I have to admit I faced a much easier task at the beginning of the year, when the events of the crisis were dominant in the public sphere and easily bound to a coherent narrative. With the pressure - at least seemingly - lowering on a series of countries the picture became more distorted, while some states earlier seen as almost doomed now are considered as almost exempt from the consequences and

Shameful self-promotion

2009-12-09T16:31:00.002+01:00

Just a link for those who can read French. The topic is quite fitting, although the story of this piece is still a bit strange for me.Lost in Transition? Here is the pdf version.

Lost in Space and Time

2009-12-06T17:55:00.004+01:00

Decisive second round of presidential elections in Romania. Some TV stations has an all-day program covering the events - funny and sad, comical and tragic - with the indispensable talking heads, intellectuals analyzing. An economist - former minister of finance -, a historian - former minister of foreign affairs, - and a political scientist - not a former minister at all - shares their views on

The New Europe

2009-11-27T21:43:00.005+01:00

The list of (probable) European commissaries was reveaeled today and it gave opportunity for some reflections here in ECE, as usual. Some surprise is justified, after even the Romanian press reporteda month ago that the country won't get the agricultural portfolio they dreamed of and at the end Dacian Ciolos landed there. But the perception of the position of commissar and the respectove

Prudent politician vs. Hungarian madness

2009-11-24T22:16:00.004+01:00

One of the most typical accusation to the adress of the Hungarian politicains from the business elite that the political elite simply bargains long term advantages fro short term political ones. (The most recent one comes from the prime minister, Gordon Bajnai, who is not really a politician, but one of the experts - with current finance mininster, Péter Oszkó, who arrived with great plans into

Relief and self-congratulation

2009-11-19T13:59:00.001+01:00

Hungary is certainly not a peaceful country nowadays, but the growing tensions – albeit connected to the crisis and social poverty – are never directly associated with the financial and economic crisis. Regarding this issue a cautious stance prevails, emphasizing more and more positive effects of the governments measures. The parties behind it seem to accept their fate with resignation, and some

The typical ECE blindness - Hungary, an "oasis of stability", according to a Romanian business newspaper.

2009-11-10T18:57:00.003+01:00

It is really hard not to laugh loudly or weep equally strongly. Ziarul Financiar published an article on Hungary,praising the efforts of the government and even stating that now the country is the most stable in the region. The article is a kind of exemplary of almost everything I have complained at these pages: wishful thinking, promotion of particular interests camouflaged as general ones,

Revival - shallow thoughts and campaign unleashed

2009-11-09T19:36:00.004+01:00

I mean maybe this blog will revive. I'm not proud of neglecting it - although not deliberately - but sometimes there is no time, or if there is still some, than energy lacks. Anyway I made promises that remained unfulfilled, however, I didn't really find suitable topics to deal with as I was not convinced that apart banalities I could be able to express anything half-original. And only repeating

Casino Royal? Reminiscenses of my childhood

2009-10-21T21:15:00.008+02:00

This blog tends to be quite boring, I must apologize again, but instead of the announced posts on Romania or Germany (later, later...) I felt an inspiration to share my views on another funny personality from Hungary. The pretext to focus on his deeds is an announcment from last week that his construction company will establish a huge complex near Pratislava/Pozsony with hotels, a casino, a spa

Apologies

2009-10-20T22:44:00.003+02:00

I'm terribly sorry for having neglected my blog and therefore my readers as well, those who just stumbled upon it with a carelessly chosen phrase typed into Google and those who were returning regularly. Unfortunately I'm amidst of moving from Budapest to Bucharest for five months (more precisely: I have four and a half months left) and it consumed a lot of energy and time. I could also defend

In the Race Again - Notes on exceptionalism VII.

2009-09-24T20:44:00.004+02:00

The Hungarian prime minister, Gordon Bajnai visited the United States, more accurately participated at the UN general assembly and used this opportunity for a longer visit, with a lecture given at Columbia University, a talk with Hungarians from New York and not the least fro a meeting with "business circles". He not only expressed his pride over his government's efforts and achievements (making

Groupism in practice

2009-09-19T21:05:00.002+02:00

I must apologize in advance for being again narrow-minded and concentrating on issues seemingly of secondary importance, only very superficially connected to the crisis. But the abandonment of the US missile shield project in ECE caused some reactions that are great illustrations of a concept introduced into the nationalism studies recently and not the least can shed light to the thinking of ECE

With "recovery" exceptionalism and self-flagellation returns

2009-09-16T16:17:00.007+02:00

As one can hear more and more positive forecasts and predictions - and the summer recess ended as well - the media is filled again with "analysis". Economists and analysts, politicians and gurus are once again on the scene and pre-crisis narratives are once again sold, without discount. Although this time at least their opposite is on the imaginary shelves...The self-flagellation, so popular

As summer recedes, public figures resume their work a new waye of stupidity strikes?

2009-09-08T20:12:00.009+02:00

Not only I have returned from a long vacation accompanied by a hopefully exceptional silence, but the public figures of Europe and with them the media is filled with a new wave of opinions regarding the crisis, its consequences and effects in the individual countries. As if nothing have happened, and the mood of the economic world wouldn't be impressed by the new leading theme of "recovery" the

Birth of a dangerous populist

2009-09-07T20:14:00.005+02:00

One of the favorite way to conceptualize the present tensions between Slovakia and Hungary is to emphasize the populist politics and the according personality of Robert Fico, the Slovak prime minister. (Ironically, Mr. Fico almost never forget to portray the present Hungarian opposition and quite probable governing party after next spring, and its leader Viktor Orbán as dangerous populist and

Recovery everywhere - why to be scared?

2009-08-28T19:07:00.006+02:00

Back from a long summer recess, although the lack of posts recently was not due to my activities (however overburdened I'm am with tasks and responsibilities) rather the lack of impulses and events. One could have seen a rising tide of good news (maybe even the favorite color has changed from green to a more ripened one), a series of countries posting positive growth figures for the second

Hot Caucasian summers

2009-08-09T10:55:00.015+02:00

I must immediately apologize to my readers - to those making efforts for a more vivid discussion and to those reading rather passively either - as the topic of this post will have not much to do with ECE and its crisis. Of course, if one covers Russia's moves at its "near abroad" zone there is always a chance to point out some kind of significance for ECE as well, but I do not want to rely on

Europe's bottleneck

2009-08-07T17:29:00.002+02:00

I'm living a honeymoon with my driving license. It is not a month old and I try to practic as much as I can. As I'm no spending my time in the middle of Romania (Sfintu Gheorghe/Spesiszentgyörgy) I could have reexperienced something I have noticed earlier as a passenger. The lack of the necessary infrastucture of traffic. There are no transversal motorways, crosing the country, no suitable fast

Moldova reloaded

2009-07-31T16:20:00.006+02:00

After the riots in the wake of the elections in April the parliament in Moldova was unable to elect a president (according to the constitutional provisions a candidate needs 61 votes in the 101 member parliament, the communist party had only 60 MPs) and as the constitution prescribes early elections were held at the end of July. The results - although the communists still retained their position

A new all encompassing science - the social biology of our age? Some provocations

2009-07-26T13:05:00.009+02:00

At the beginning of the last century for many people the biology seemed to be the universal science, not only explaining the laws of nature but at the same time being applicable for the human society as well. Medical doctors, pioneers of genetics, ethologists saw the human race as living in a natural organism and behaving according the laws of nature. Social-darwinism achieved a certain

Where are the queues? - Impressions from Latvia

2009-07-25T19:06:00.008+02:00

If someone would like to visualize the Great Depression of the last century - the one that shaked the world between 1929 and 1933, with far reaching consequences - the first images to pop up would almost certainly be those monochrome ones with horrified people incredulously looking at the headlines or each other, incapable to grasp that a life's savings were lost literally in one moment, or the

Rule of Law?

2009-07-24T22:15:00.005+02:00

In the last post I've mentioned the efforts of the Romanian government to reduce budget spending, besides other attempts, in the judiciary system as well. Today the judegs fought back, or one can phrase it otherwise: the rule of law was upheld. The Court of Appeal in Bucureşti decided that the Ministry of Finance is obliged to pay for the judges of the Supreme Court every element of their payment

Detruisez l'Autriche-Hongrie - reloaded?

2009-07-13T18:07:00.003+02:00

Indivudal states - as entities and historical individualities - are not eternal ones. A significant part of the world's and Europe's sovereign entities are relatively newly established, and many of the seemingly resilient ones went through phases in the last hundred years when their existence and/or sovereignity was in doubt. It is quite clear in the Eastern part of the EU, where every new member

Where is the success story? - Bulgaria after elections

2009-07-09T20:14:00.005+02:00

No, I won't give a detailed analysis, only some impressions, especially because I'm not quite acquainted with Bulgaria's internal situation. (Although I had the chance to read a text from a local economist, predicting that even though the government tried to keep the surface of normality and suggested that the country has no problems resulting from the crisis, it was nothing else than mere

The Markets, oh the Markets!

2009-07-03T19:56:00.008+02:00

Last week the Hungarian governemnt achieved a great "victory", the parliament passed a bill on the taxes and tax system in next year, modifying the structure of taxes, with cuts in the personal income taxes and the social security contributions and hikes in VAT, introducing a new property tax etc. It laid the foundations of the next budget and it made the ministers quite proud of their production

Why do statistical offices exist?

2009-06-24T20:38:00.008+02:00

My preferred Romanian politician, Mr. Băsescu swung into action today again. At a conference entitled "The Future of Social Change: 1989-2009: Visions and Perspectives after 20 Years of Transition" he vigorously attaced the lazy and populist Romanian politicians as - according to him - Romania is in danger to become a country of peoples depending on social assistance. Mr. Băsescu - who recently

Crisis, but more than one? - Hungary

2009-06-17T11:57:00.007+02:00

Well, on the one hand it is clear that at the moment the sense of crisis is receding (or only has receded?), "risk appetite" is growing, everyone is looking and seeing "green shoots" even though the data on real economy is at leats controversial and for more sober observers not really promising. (Just one example: the most prestigeous economic news and analysis website www.portfolio.hu published

Reminiscences of Ancient Syria? - turncoat economics

2009-05-31T08:15:00.010+02:00

It is always flattering when economists regularly expressing their views publicly and supposedly with high authority support one's ideas, even if only unconsciously as they very probably never ever learnt of those. Therefore it is highly understandable if I was very proud of my smart ideas hearing that such an excellent economist as László Csaba (not to be confused with Csaba László, former

A new migration period? - Fears and future of the East

2009-05-17T14:27:00.009+02:00

The fear from a mass immigration from the East to the West was always prevalent since the EU accession of the countries in the region became a certainty. Its intensity never really diminished and it surfaces again and again, even though the recent years didn't proved it. For a certain extent quite the contrary happened, the migration was beneficial for both the destination and the country of

I'm so insecure, or am I not? - The next enunciation from Romania's Master of Economics

2009-05-16T17:34:00.006+02:00

Traian Băsescu, Romanina's able president whose expertise in economic matters was so obvious regarding the teachers' salary affair (covered in two earlier posts) was today once again in a gracious mood and offered his views on the GDP data realeased yesterday. He chose as the most suitable spot for such an act the Congress of Student Unions. The president told his audience that despite the sharp

Never say reform again? - Despised words and obvious bias

2009-05-16T13:16:00.007+02:00

The release of the GDP data gave an opportunity to quickly assess the situation in ECE and Reuters did it with an article yesterday. Although the piece is not unbalanced, it has some peculiarties in it, showing incoherence in the picture and the argumentation. (Although it is rather a report then a text expressing opinion, the concluding remarks disguised as a citation from Katinka Barzych,

Doomsday or the truth revealed? - Q1 GDP data released...

2009-05-15T19:41:00.007+02:00

It is almost official - Slovakia is always keen on overtaking Hungary either towards heaven or hell. The official (although preliminary) data on the economic growth in the countries of Hungary, Slovakia, Czech Republic and Romania is out. Every one of them was much better then the landlside experienced in the Baltics ranging from a 12,/% to a 18% year-on-year, but neither was very rosy. The

Uspide down - Tax cuts, free market and distorting subsidies

2009-05-14T22:37:00.001+02:00

Recently I was pondering the idea that the practice of tux cuts (more precisely cuts in the contribution to social security payable after the salaries) represent - at least in the context of the European Union - a kind of - reversed - state subsidy for companies and that way not only being distortive in the free market but implicitly contrary to the basic ideas of the Union. Of course one should

"I was not lying, I'm only idiot" - scene two of the teachers' salary saga

2009-05-06T10:02:00.003+02:00

The story of the law raising teachers' salaries in Romania rolls on. The president, Traian Băsescu, after admitting a mistake yesterday was possibly warned by his spin doctors that it is dangerous to assume responsibility. As a consequence, at the evening he began to manouver in order to put responsibilty on anyone else. According to his new explanation it would have been strange not to

"Read my lips, I'm lying" - electoral promises and harsh realities in Romania

2009-05-05T06:38:00.002+02:00

Romania, until recently a beloved model country for "economists" and "experts" and "analysts" in Hungary, is getting nearer to social turmoil. Not that it is expected in the nearest future and as I was there recently there was no visible change compared to timexs of "normality", when the rapid growth generated by the supposedly very simple tax system - at least according to the above mentioned

Practical jokes of life - Retributions in Moldavia

2009-04-25T20:01:00.004+02:00

In an earlier post I tried to express my views on the situation in Moldavia. Although the process of retributions and the consolidtaion of the situation of the present government continued, the news consisted some very peculiar information, some of it seemed as a farce of the political forces in power. The government, two or three days after the riots, announced that they arrested someone accused

Facing the limits - dead end for Latvia and the spending cuts approach, the new Hungarian finance minister abandons his ambitious plans

2009-04-22T19:24:00.006+02:00

Although the psychosis of the crisis has been stilled a bit, the happy end is still far away and the everyday consequences of the steep contraction will be clear only afterwards. The usual hyteria - at least usual in Hungary in the recent weeks - is over, however it is not clear whether beacuse those actors how were very active in producing of this hysterical environment think that the new

Facts and figures - where to find the "reality"?

2009-04-22T14:06:00.004+02:00

In an earlier - long, boring, not well argumented etc., as you wish - post I tried to outline the very peculiar concept of time and space prevalent in ECE in the public sphere, primarily among so-called analysts and economists. The recent events in Hungray, primarily the installment of the new government and the prime minister's presentation of his program revealed an interesting epistemological

Slovakia still the frontrunner - irony and self-critic

2009-04-12T20:49:00.003+02:00

As the data on the economic production and trends in the first few months in ECE is gradually revealed it is quite clear that the whole region is facing an economic downturn, regardless of earlier preformance and forecasts on possible growth. Last week the Slovak Statistical Office published its results on the industrial production in February, 28,2% year on year decline. It is very serious,

A rather traditional crisis - Riots in Chişinău

2009-04-08T17:52:00.008+02:00

Days of tension after elections were held in Moldavia on Sunday led to violence and riots in the capital of the tiny country. Mass protesters against an allaged electoral fraud lost their patience and stormed the building of the Parliament and the Presidency. They planted Romanian and EU flags* and greated their victory as the fall of Moldavia's communist president, Valdimir Voronin. After hours

A week later - today's world as seen from Bratislava

2009-04-03T16:50:00.002+02:00

Things are changing with an aunexpected pace in Slovakia as weel. Only a week after the serious lecturing delivered at the adress of Hungary the SME begin to relize that the problems looming over Slovakia are in fact larger than expected. Today they published an article with the title "The budget in state of an heart attack". The tone of the piece is substantially different from earlier one and

Under the surface: normality?

2009-04-02T15:15:00.003+02:00

Well, as I was writing long and boring posts in the recent weeks, considering problems not in line with my capacity to resolve and dealing with serious problems of human society (once again far from offering any viable solution) this post will be "something completely different". Even not really related to the crisis, or if it would be the case, only showing the flip side of the coin, business as

Paradoxes of downgrading and simple accounting

2009-03-30T19:49:00.007+02:00

One of the worst, most feared moments of the crisis for many ECE countries is the event of downgrading by a credit rating agency. It is usually accompanied by a sudden fall of the respective currency on the market (sometimes as a lasting effect, sometimes followed by a recovery soon), by the growing spreads of government bonds and by a wavering credibility in the country's public finances etc.

The black hole called Hungary - Notes on exceptionalism VI.

2009-03-30T15:38:00.008+02:00

After more than a week of frantic selectionary work (vetting a lá Hongrois) a new candidate for the position of the prime minister emerged. The twists and turns of last week were certainly fascinating for observers and outsiders and I wouldn't even astonished to attend once a theater play or a movie using the story as a basis. (Conmedy or tragedy, I don't really know.) But as the sun rose to it's

Today's world seen from Bratislava

2009-03-27T19:23:00.006+01:00

The liberal daily from Bratislava, SME, published today an article on the political situation in Hungary.(Unfortunately it is not a longer piece, as its author, Peter Morvay is a colorful personality, for example he was for a while probably the last Czechoslovak citizen, more than a decade after the dissolutuon of that country.) Otherwise the article is a short one, outlining the possibilities

Welcome to the machine?

2009-03-27T13:39:00.007+01:00

As I was reading the "letters to the editor" pages of the weekly "Magyar Narancs" today, some intriguing thoughts occurred to me, as part of a debate on an op-ed piece some week ago the author of the original article criticized his opponents approach to public services. He denied that the state run and regulated, obligatory systems, like the pensions, health care, social benefits etc can be

Chaos unleashed – Hungary in the Maelstrom

2009-03-26T12:16:00.002+01:00

Four days after the announcement from premier Gyurcsány about his willingness to abdicate, the following events were very much in line with the predictable. The socialists are almost unanimously denounced as the roots of all evil; the first contemptous articles full of rage and triumphalism were published; the media is dominated by the expectations of the business elites regarding a prime

Who will be the next in the line?

2009-03-24T19:09:00.010+01:00

Today the Lower House of the Czech Parliament expressed its no confidence regarding the government of Mirek Topolánek. It is far from being certain that we will see an early election in this country as well, but even though his fall is not so tightly connected to the crisis as in the case of Latvia or Hungary, Topolánek is the third head of government in ECE having his cabinet collapsed in the

Doomsday reports? - notes on exceptionalism V.

2009-03-23T21:25:00.003+01:00

Although I have my doubts regarding economic forecasts - especially in case of longer periods - and in these times it is hardly possible to make a prognosis valid even for a few weeks, today's newsreel contained two interesting pieces. The estimated growth of Germany was cut by many economic institues, while a London based research center published a series of prognosis regarding ECE, painting a

Knee deep in the mud - a resignation leading to nowhere?

2009-03-22T13:55:00.009+01:00

The Hungarian prime minister announced yesterday that he is willing to give way to another cabinet with another premier heading it and as this blog admittedly has a bias towards Hungary I can't evade making my point regarding the events. At the moment, only a day after the announcement causing confusement, the outcome is very obscured, only one thing seems certain: there is hardly any short term

Welcome, Poland! - notes on exceptionalism IV.

2009-03-19T17:37:00.005+01:00

The polish prime minister announced this day that his country approached the IMF and negotiationg on "cooperation". According to the PAP press agency the premier stressed that the move was not to get a loan, instead to have "witnesses" that Poland is capable to withstand the actual storm. Poland is not in a similar situation as other countries in the region, do not need to beg for help - said

What makes ECE? I.

2009-03-19T14:21:00.004+01:00

After many posts published on a very fluid phenomenon and concept, East-Central Europe maybe it is time to try to outline the specificities of the region, if it exist of course. The crisis is still lasting, forint is still haven't been dissociated from the region, Gyurcsány still hasn't got a coherent action plan for handling the crisis, while Estonia, Latvia and Romania - more precisely their

Our Hero, the bycicle repairman?

2009-03-19T06:55:00.006+01:00

The Romanian premier proudly announced yesterday that during the negotiations with the IMF the government was capable to defend both the flat tax system and its level, because, as he put it: the loan has a preventiv character and therefore the Fund set no conditions for it. (???) The latter statement is a bit confusing as according to the prime minister 2/3 of the loan will raise the reserves of

Look, the rabbit wears no hat! - notes on exceptionalism III

2009-03-17T22:06:00.005+01:00

For years Hungary was treated as the sick man of ECE, a country in wich the necessary political courage for thorough reforms, following the models of Slovakia, Romania, late Poland or the Czech republic do not exist. The result was - at least for the critiques - evidently the weak economic performance and they usually tried to drive the country's elite to refomrs pointing out the perceived

Shame, fear and pride - notes on exceptionalism II.

2009-03-15T15:41:00.008+01:00

The story of IMF loan for Romania rolls on slowly, it is business as usual. The former premier and leader of the opposition National Liberal Party (PNL) attacked the government as faint-hearted people, who will cause a recession with the IMF loan. More precisely with the conditions imposed by the Monetary Fund. Although it is rather a political manoeuver (this year is an electoral one, and Mr.

The Roaring Mouse*

2009-03-13T08:34:00.005+01:00

The Hungarian minsiter of defense, visiting the USA demonstrated that he is a good son of the Hungarian nation and proficient in ECE politics. According to the news he reprimanded Barack Obama because of his remark on Hungary's and Ukraine's problems. As Obama and Gordon Brown met simoultaneously with our very Hungarian coup, in Hungary nobody cared about the real text, and the very benevolent

Reflections on flat-tax

2009-03-12T09:03:00.009+01:00

The flat-tax, paired with the low redistribution rate is considered to be the key of economic success, so-called miracles in many ECE countries. The Baltic states, Slovakia, Bulgaria, Romania used to be mentioned as obviuous examples. In Hungary, where a one-sided dabete on the problem ensues (economists and "economists", "experts" strongly argues in favor if its introduction, while the socialist

Shame, fear and pride - notes on exceptionalism

2009-03-12T06:57:00.012+01:00

The Romanian president, Traian Băsescu was very active this week, adressing the parliament with a speech on the state of Romania. (Although it was an event similar to the usual State of the Nation Adress, as Băsescu's prerogatives are very limited it was rather an act of substituting the premier, Emil Boc. It is quite interesting, how the president is acting as a substitute of the prime minister,

A very Hungarian coup?

2009-03-07T07:58:00.014+01:00

Personally I'm not adherent of conspiracy theories, especially as they were extensively used in the 20th century to adress very complex social processes in a very simplified way. The results are well known, unfortunately and fortunately. But as historian I have to admit that conspiracies exist. Maybe we have witnessed one this week in Hungary? A series of events following each other and pointing

Business as usual and the distortion of time

2009-03-04T15:46:00.017+01:00

Three days has passed since the informal EU summit at Sunday, an event in a series of meetings aiming to find solutions for the effects of the crisis. ECE is "dead again" or more precisely its leaders once again proved that they are not aware of the similarities in the region (or prefer to emphasize the differences) and ready to seek shelter at the expense of the others. (Irony was not missing

Back to the future?

2009-02-27T20:57:00.017+01:00

Last April the then-minister for economy, delegated by the liberal party, made a roundtrip in capitals of ECE, where he found fellow liberals in the government. As he was that time already abdicated (the liberals collided with their socialist partners over the necessity of reforms, especially in their form advocated by the liberal ministers after the governing parties suffered a heavy defeat at a

How to betray something non-existent?

2009-02-22T08:03:00.016+01:00

At the weekend a prominent Hungarian politician, as he was attending a public discussion in Vienna, made a harsh remark on the present situation in ECE. According to reports in the press he accused Western Europe for betraying Central-Europe in the crises. He argued that banks from the western part of the continent were eager to

Why now?

2009-02-21T23:05:00.008+01:00

Because of the crisis, obviously. Even though the question 'how to handle the crisis' has now the foremost importance, it is also a chance to think of more substantial problems than it was usual even a year ago. Although the careful observers could have found signs of systemic difficulties in the so-called transformation countries, in Hungary these were not taken into account. The public,