tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-14316727151122230822024-03-13T13:55:12.095+01:00Wasteland? - East-Central Europe in crisisYou, my humble reader, will find some notes, comments, remarks, reflections, longer texts on a region in crisis after two decades of transformation. Writing from Hungary will determine the geogrpahical perspective, even if I'm convinced of the existence of ECE, and I will try to collect and evaluate informations from elsewhere in order to highlight similarities and differences. Otherwise, writing a blog is a substitute for the barely existent critical discourse on our past and present ...Gáborhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09636309558955609141noreply@blogger.comBlogger89125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1431672715112223082.post-82680502823442601132011-12-30T20:59:00.002+01:002011-12-30T20:59:57.282+01:00On the paradox of sovereigntyThere should be nothing surprising in the Hungarian governments reluctance to accept the terms of the EU and the IMF for a new agreement, at least for those following the developments in Hungary. The EU insists on repeal of some recently passed legislation, while the IMF made very clear that there is no way Hungary can hope for anything else than a stand-by-agreement with hard policy Gáborhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09636309558955609141noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1431672715112223082.post-22332004723881274992011-12-14T13:16:00.002+01:002011-12-14T13:59:58.045+01:00On thin ice?Hungary's prime minister is
in full gear. With declining popularity and approval ratings he is convinced
that it is due to his government's inability to make people understand how well
they are treated. Instead they believe in the lies of the opposition. As a
result Viktor Orbán appears everywhere, gives interviews (even to reporters
earlier exiled to remote corners of the public media) and Gáborhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09636309558955609141noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1431672715112223082.post-45524210518559457992011-12-12T23:09:00.001+01:002011-12-12T23:09:15.121+01:00Why not?
The crisis of Hungary and
the drama of the EU – for a brief period separate from each other
and the former even resolved at least in the imagery of the prime
minister, Viktor Orbán – suddenly got bound to each other very
firmly. Not only was the complete dependence of Hungary's economy on
and from the European declared, but the unfolding crisis of the
eurozone absorbed Hungary's fate last week,Gáborhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09636309558955609141noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1431672715112223082.post-36476613079899983062011-09-14T21:50:00.001+02:002011-09-14T21:58:21.001+02:00Disorderly devaluation?
The saga of the conversion
of fx-loans in Hungary goes on. According to a report at the
Hungarian website origo.hu the government's main aim is to regain
freedom of exchange rate determination and practically carry out a
devaluation of the forint, without hurting households with fx-loans.
As I'm no friend of this government I'm sceptical a bit, no
government politician or supporter used this Gáborhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09636309558955609141noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1431672715112223082.post-15016615368294056392011-09-11T09:19:00.002+02:002011-09-11T10:05:21.026+02:00Self comment on the previous postMaybe soemone who has read this blog carefully will obstruct my previous post that earlier I was no friend of banks and suddenly taking an issue on behalf of them can only be the expression of political bias. In order to clarify this (but not denying some political bias, anyway, why should a blogger be unbiased, it is supposedly a very personal genre) let me present my opinion. Firstly, banks areGáborhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09636309558955609141noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1431672715112223082.post-88564970742059686672011-09-10T21:01:00.001+02:002011-09-11T22:31:54.035+02:00Frustration, failure, voluntarism
Hungary is still only a
secondary front-line of the renascent crisis, not among the headlines
and for a superficial observer (i. e. for most of them) it could seem
justified. Although the slippage in this years budget (and the
obvious: the flat tax was not capable to stimulate growth) could
warrant some worry, the government is imitating action at every
negative sign, this time announcing 100 Gáborhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09636309558955609141noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1431672715112223082.post-23357846964960433902011-08-10T12:28:00.000+02:002011-08-10T12:28:05.553+02:00Scholars of humanties will save the world?Yesterday - at least as I see, without any qualification and only intuitively - was a fine example how the psychology of the markets work. At the start almost every stock exchange plunged, almost a free fall, but they soon began to recover, most probably on the back of expectations that the FED will announce new measure to boost the sluggish US economy. The expectations ranged as far as the Gáborhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09636309558955609141noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1431672715112223082.post-9247969698634381012011-08-08T15:34:00.001+02:002011-08-08T15:34:47.384+02:00August again, leaders on holiday - what about a new Marshall-plan?Not that it would be a typical one, with almost unbearable heat, slowly radiating from the walls of houses and even the shade of trees not offering relief without the breeze. And I don't believe in theories that for some mysterious reason August would be a month dedicated to and the most suitable for catastrophic events to happen. But after another half a year of "it is a strong recovery, Gáborhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09636309558955609141noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1431672715112223082.post-70706833188236849792011-03-25T13:53:00.002+01:002011-03-26T00:05:39.162+01:00The taxation liquidity trapIt was clear for a while that the Hungarian government's secret weapon to curb economic growth is a low tax economy. (Well, with a supposedly strong and active state, something that would most probably result in a despotic state instead, but it is a sidetrack here.) The reason they gave why the government does not want to join the new competitiveness pact of the EU was nothing else that the Gáborhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09636309558955609141noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1431672715112223082.post-90399237215868101682011-03-11T16:01:00.001+01:002011-03-11T16:02:12.081+01:00Hungary, even more path-dependent?Hungary is again pushing forward on its path towards its demise with the so-called Széll Kálmán-plan and the Draft Constitution. It would be (or probably will be) entertaining to analyze the constitution in depth in the light of Fidesz's organic/integral nationalism, how it correpsonds to this idea.JUst as it would be important to give a more detailed coverage of the economic plicies of the Gáborhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09636309558955609141noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1431672715112223082.post-78368439304910341762011-02-14T13:57:00.000+01:002011-02-14T13:57:34.979+01:00Pride over not being prejudicedOk, it was a safe guess. Nothing specific and new in Orbán's speech. Even though I have to admit, even my guess was too optimistic: Orbán didn't even announced anything specific regarding unemployment benefits. Anyway, I'm proud as clearly I was among the few expecting what really happened.Gáborhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09636309558955609141noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1431672715112223082.post-3145770494573284492011-02-12T11:37:00.009+01:002011-02-13T10:51:06.049+01:00Playing Cassandra, resolving cognitive dissonance and on the importance of not investing too much emotional and intellectual capital in expectationsAs I try to take a distance from politics in a stricter sense it could mean that in less troubled times I remain silent. My intention is not to comment on everything happening in Hungary or in ECE, especially not when someone else is perofrming it with more expertise and in line with my opinion, rather to give my ideas when I feel I can express thoughts and ideas less prevalent in the public Gáborhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09636309558955609141noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1431672715112223082.post-35760804482539812652010-11-05T14:11:00.007+01:002010-11-06T08:49:17.390+01:00Mark Pittaway, 1971-2010. R.I.P.Just a short note on an official website, but an enormous loss. Banalities rush to my mind, maybe one of them is decent enough to dedicate it to the memory of a friend.: the most tragic of losses when you must realize the one who passed was so much better than you.Update: The Open University website has now a tribute page.Gáborhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09636309558955609141noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1431672715112223082.post-701817401838045872010-10-30T17:36:00.002+02:002010-10-30T17:57:46.539+02:00Hungary and sovereign defaultIt's almost official: the government's ingenious plan is to nationalize compulsory private pension savings and spend it on current budget expenses (pensions) and debt reduction. They hope it will enable them to survive without major restructuring and action until the tax cuts will bring 7% GDP growth. (Actually many expressed doubts, how realistic this expectation could be. Some calculate that Gáborhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09636309558955609141noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1431672715112223082.post-41385335650833455462010-10-14T09:42:00.019+02:002010-10-16T09:13:33.525+02:00White mice - UpdatedAfter months of permanent "revolution" the prime minister, Viktor Orbán announced new measures this Wednesday aimed to bring the budget deficit under the ceiling aggreed with the EU, supposedly without austerity. It would be easy to mock him how he defines austerity (as next years budget is planned with a nominal cut in budget expenditures, obviously affecting a lot of people) but I presume it Gáborhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09636309558955609141noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1431672715112223082.post-48931645477950466262010-06-11T19:21:00.006+02:002010-10-16T08:19:18.884+02:00The Great Economic ExperimentFor a while I was convinced that Fidesz's action plan is just the result of confusion and lack of time, that's the reason behind its incoherence. However, probably it is a more refined action to achieve the elbow room they wanted. As one of their basic slogans in the campaign was the end of "traditional economics" they decided to prove how problematic its basic assumptions are. This is an Gáborhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09636309558955609141noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1431672715112223082.post-66294000874322487542010-06-08T21:24:00.011+02:002010-10-14T14:25:19.907+02:00An action plan of indecision? UpdatedHungary's new prime minister, Viktor Orbán announced yesterday his "action plan" a set of measures seen as the guidelines of the government's economic policy. The announcement followed days of insecurity caused by remarks of Fidesz and government officials on the budget deficit this year, frequently using phrases "like Greece", "default" etc. This debacle (retrospectively Fidesz politicians - Gáborhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09636309558955609141noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1431672715112223082.post-8089527902445596162010-05-11T18:57:00.001+02:002010-05-11T18:58:44.862+02:00Rewind? With the events of the last few weeks one can easily think we are back to the gloomy days of early 2009. Unfortunately Marx’s famous dictum, everything in history is staged twice, once as a tragedy and again as a comedy, proved to be wrong. The tragedy of East-Central Europe was followed by the tragedy of South Eastern Europe: Greece and the unnoticed one, in Romania. The former literally Gáborhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09636309558955609141noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1431672715112223082.post-56608253066456692062010-03-14T13:42:00.014+01:002010-03-14T19:22:19.309+01:00On taxation II.Although in the previous post I mentioned macroeconomic context of taxation as the topic of this follow up post, as a layman I do not want to claim to analyze the issue in depth. My aim is only to pick up some themes - some frequently mentioned in the public discourse, some totally absent - I find intriguing, nothing more.The whole problem is centered around the redistributive role and the Gáborhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09636309558955609141noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1431672715112223082.post-14979712539067454822010-03-10T09:42:00.014+01:002010-03-10T22:54:55.320+01:00On taxation I.As the elections in Hungary in April draw nearer and the result seems pretty sure - at least regarding the person of the next prime minister - more and more speculation appears on the probable economic policy of the next government. Some of these are driven by curiosity and goodwill, others rather by pure and badly veiled self-interest, but one thing is common these are speculations as long as noGáborhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09636309558955609141noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1431672715112223082.post-21919300794899444052010-03-10T00:07:00.002+01:002010-03-10T00:14:14.556+01:00Democracy victoriousOur Moldavian very European democrats are in action. Instead of complying with the current constitution and dissolve parliament after the failure of electing a new president, they decided to create a new one. Not that I had any illusion and I'm sure that for those who thought of them as the champions of democracy it will even be a reassurance in their blind faith. However, the nasty communist Gáborhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09636309558955609141noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1431672715112223082.post-39228334318596080102010-03-09T10:33:00.003+01:002010-03-10T00:07:05.798+01:00Political economy of the West - updatedI always tried to avoid being boring and repetitive (however the resulting decline of posts can only help in the latter, but unfortunately enhances the former) but one of my permanent assumptions mentioned on this blog is that contrary to the popular - and evidently self-interest driven - portrayal of Eastern politicians their are not different from their Western peers. A very few of these peopleGáborhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09636309558955609141noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1431672715112223082.post-31308271699262162202010-02-10T08:22:00.003+01:002010-03-09T11:22:54.456+01:00It is so familiar!Actually I'm not really surprised but as usual the idea of the Hungarian politicians being uniquely stupid and villainous, runing away from every copnforntation with the popular will is widely shared in this country. Due to the recent decisions of the Constitutional Court it was cpmlemented by another complain, that this institutions is a unheard defender of social rights, blocking every Gáborhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09636309558955609141noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1431672715112223082.post-23356867808975370932010-01-23T20:08:00.007+01:002010-01-23T23:19:59.543+01:00Hungary - once again left behindFor years the idea of Hungary having a unique and unparalleled crisis, that could not happen elsewhere was a dull, repetitive syntactic element of almost every commentator's opinion. Reasons were easy to find: nowhere was such a bad government identified, no society was more attached to its socialist past, no politicians were so fearful of losing elections, no country so corrupt. But at least, Gáborhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09636309558955609141noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1431672715112223082.post-12595479582252760582010-01-04T14:26:00.002+01:002010-01-04T14:30:14.031+01:00Something worth to read - from BarcelonaOne piece, one author, two versions. Worth to read...Gáborhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09636309558955609141noreply@blogger.com0